Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.462105 0.533187 0.610596 0.701025 0.803635 0.916314 1.049285
2025-08-24 0.336485 0.432094 0.546560 0.693094 0.875034 1.092796 1.372407
2025-08-31 0.259339 0.360964 0.491549 0.670375 0.907420 1.209198 1.620558
2025-09-07 0.227888 0.338440 0.488761 0.705894 1.008852 1.413451 1.990903
2025-09-14 0.188147 0.296573 0.451821 0.687174 1.031011 1.510196 2.222447
2025-09-21 0.157531 0.262268 0.419470 0.668444 1.047526 1.596289 2.441846
2025-09-28 0.134115 0.234932 0.393001 0.653622 1.065684 1.683089 2.665774
2025-10-05 0.121411 0.222605 0.387566 0.669426 1.130124 1.841544 3.006327
2025-10-12 0.113898 0.217711 0.393037 0.702424 1.223439 2.049990 3.437743
2025-10-19 0.104595 0.208260 0.389494 0.719476 1.291433 2.222622 3.824155
2025-10-26 0.094950 0.196770 0.380878 0.726433 1.342286 2.370216 4.179332
2025-11-02 0.085323 0.183918 0.368187 0.724444 1.376759 2.492055 4.498943
2025-11-09 0.075637 0.169836 0.352003 0.715091 1.398537 2.596030 4.799838
2025-11-16 0.067237 0.157205 0.337151 0.706689 1.421292 2.703535 5.115259
2025-11-23 0.058390 0.142288 0.315946 0.683535 1.413963 2.756286 5.336597
2025-11-30 0.056393 0.142075 0.324372 0.719692 1.522383 3.025664 5.965458
2025-12-07 0.049610 0.129993 0.306625 0.700636 1.521040 3.091546 6.224389
2025-12-14 0.043681 0.118986 0.289811 0.681568 1.517541 3.152303 6.476643
2025-12-21 0.038772 0.109694 0.275621 0.666477 1.520467 3.224928 6.755313
2025-12-28 0.036541 0.106815 0.275649 0.682567 1.589722 3.431965 7.307573
2026-01-04 0.035591 0.107136 0.283157 0.716159 1.698888 3.725515 8.048075
2026-01-11 0.033693 0.104636 0.283623 0.733518 1.773969 3.954477 8.672637
2026-01-18 0.031374 0.100619 0.279900 0.740600 1.826692 4.140475 9.220668